In 1965, Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, predicted that the number of transistors on a microprocessor would double approximately every two years, leading to exponential increases in processing power and digital technology capabilities. This observation, known as Moore’s Law, has remained consistent and unchanged to this day.
Ray Kurzweil went further with his Law of Accelerating Returns, which describes how technological progress builds upon itself, resulting in even faster exponential advancements. The futurist claims that the 21st century will not see 100 years of progress but 20,000 years at the current growth rates.
Simultaneously, there has been an exponential decrease in the cost of computer memory and storage over the years, making technology increasingly accessible and affordable, with prices halving roughly every 18 months.
On the other hand, humans tend to think linearly due to:
- Evolutionary reasons of adaptation and survival
- Limited cognitive capacity
- Educational systems, along with social and cultural norms
That is why at the onset of a new technology, its exponential growth is perceived as small and irrelevant; technological development is in its infancy.
However, there comes a point when the technology radically changes the rules of the game in various markets and society itself. This is the phase of disruption.
This is the moment we are living now with AI. However, this technology did not appear overnight: the first paper on artificial neural networks was written and published 80 years ago—in 1943—by neurophysiologist Warren McCulloch and mathematician Walter Pitts: History of Neural Networks.
While we may not be able to think exponentially, we can develop our ability to sense disruption, transformation, and the impact of exponential technology in any market.
It’s a matter of:
- Unleashing our curiosity and learning
- Stepping outside the established norms
- Engaging with technology in its early stages
- Experimenting and generating our own knowledge
- Disseminating information
- Living this process with enthusiasm, but also with patience.
By Ángel González
Ideagoras
